Effects of Rural Population Aging on Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China

The “double carbon” goal (China aims to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and neutrality 2060) puts forward new requirements for the low-carbon development of agriculture. However, with increasing aging rural population gradual agricultural labor force, determining best means achieving target reducing emissions is particularly urgent. Based on IPAT identity relationship (method decomposing environmental impact (I) into socio-economic variables: (P), affluence (A), technology (T)), population, residents’ income, innovation were selected as threshold variables. Using provincial panel data from 2003 2020 in China, this study empirically analyzed through a threshold–STIRPAT expansion model. results showed that an inverted U-shaped growth trend reached 2016. Baseline regression found has significant emission reduction effect emissions. In addition, income have positive negative impacts emissions, respectively. three factors variables, it was there effect. weakens deepening degree but enhanced improvement innovation. view these findings, policy suggestions are put alleviates effects aging, increases strengthens technological